A BRIEF LESSON IN POLITICAL SCIENCE

A BRIEF LESSON IN POLITICAL SCIENCE

Students of American political history need to be paying close attention to the broad overview of the landscape these days. Twice before in our history the more conservative of the two dominant political parties was replaced: the Federalists gave way to the Whigs, and the Whigs were eclipsed by the Republicans. (That is the modern Republican party of Abraham Lincoln. In Thomas Jefferson’s days the more liberal of the two parties was termed Republican, then Democratic-Republican, and finally Democratic.) We could be seeing that happening again, because the Republican party, it appears to me, is perilously close to self-destruction.

Mr. Trump knows precisely where his base of support is (those who would actually vote FOR him), and he has done a masterful job of playing to that support and keeping them deliriously happy. They love him. The problem is that that base, though very deep, is not very broad. And the President has no apparent desire to broaden his support beyond that base. His policies, by themselves, MIGHT have done it; but his behavior has rendered it very near to being an impossibility. I have no idea who David Frum is, but he expressed it nicely: “Trump’s conduct as candidate and President long ago deprived him of any power to persuade anyone not already predisposed to support him.” What he means is that Mr. Trump’s policies are almost beside the point, because so many people have become disgusted with him personally that they ignore anything positive he might say or do.

What that means is that the Republicans’ only hope is that the Democrats are stupid enough (and they probably will be) to nominate some left-wing nut whose behavior is as obnoxious, offensive, and seemingly-deranged as the President's has been, thus making a level playing field. They seem to have a growing field of candidates to choose from with those dubious qualifications. IF the Democrats can somehow stumble across a candidate who at least has a public persona that comes across as dignified and somewhat reasonable, Mr. Trump could be in serious trouble in the next election.

What will determine the next presidential election (assuming Mr. Trumps runs again) will be the “hold your nose” factor. What do I mean by that? Those are the voters who are not really voting FOR a candidate, but are holding their noses against the political stench coming from one candidate, voting for that person anyway, in order to vote AGAINST the other candidate who is even more objectionable to them. Sometimes, if you hold your nose, you can block out the scent. But, if the smell is so strong that even holding your nose won’t shut it out, then you either vote for the other candidate, or more likely, just do not vote at all in disgust.

Mr. Trump is so utterly self-absorbed that he would never notice the odor, since he assumes that if he says, “Everybody loves me,” the fact that he said it automatically makes it true. But the rest of the Republican party OUGHT to be aware of what is going on – and they ought to be alarmed. I suspect some of them are, but the combined rigidity of the backbones of the current Republican leadership is roughly equivalent to warm Jello, so they are studiously avoiding anything that might make Mr. Trump upset.

The problem that the Republicans have is that since the days of Wilson they have been, for the most part, the minority party. That means a hundred years. Over that period more people have identified fundamentally with the Democrats than with the Republicans; but in some elections enough of the “swing” middle of the political spectrum would slide over that the Republicans could win. At the moment their base of support is narrow enough that they cannot afford to lose anyone. Thus, the noisy Trump base has evidently petrified them to the point that they are scared to death to do anything to lose them, even if it means risking the dissolution of their party in the long run. In a two-party system, neither party will be able to be dominant in the long term without being able to get the votes in the middle – “moderates” we call them. During the peak of FDR’s administration perhaps the Democrats were past that point, but it has been a rarity. The Republicans are allowing Mr. Trump to maintain his base of perhaps 20%, but they are placing in dire jeopardy the middle of the body of voters. They are taking a huge risk that the entire party becomes identified as “Trump’s party,” with no one within the party who constitutes “the opposition.”

Disgust is a powerful motivator. Irritation might cause us to stay away from an individual whenever we have the opportunity, but disgust can cause us to sever all relationship with him. I believe the GOP is greatly underestimating the disgust factor in the current political landscape; and it is just possible that the overlooking of a critical political factor could do them permanent, irreparable damage. IF that is the case, then we could be on the cusp of a permanent shift in the American political landscape. Two years ago the Republicans had the presidency and both houses of Congress, and a golden opportunity to shift the balance of power strongly in their favor. In those who short years they have gone from that to the distinct possibility of having done just the opposite.

Young students of political science should pay attention, because this does not happen very often. You may be watching something about which you can tell your grandchildren, "I was there."