Sometimes the obvious is just wrong

 Bill wondered if he were creating difficulties where there were none: if a tired mind were inventing phantoms. Nine times out of ten, perhaps ninety-nine out of a hundred, the obvious was the true. O'Malley had had a long and reasonably successful career merely by playing on those odds. You could not very well miss, granted you were bright enough to see the obvious. Justice might miscarry here and there, but justice would in any case. Not for the first time, Bill Weigand wished he could adjust his behavior to this evident logic. But it was no good.

(from Murder Is Served, by Richard and Frances Lockridge)